Establishment rising?

The county turned around; the city could

The most significant thing about the most significant purely local political story of 2025 was not widely reported, possibly because there was no one to report it.

A School Board member in the county was defeated by a candidate he had defeated to win his seat four years ago.

Worth noting that Andrew Payton nearly winning a delegate seat was as significant as the School Board race in the county; however, linked to statewide races as it was, it was less local a story. Hence the phrase “purely local” above.

It’s a hair worth splitting to make a particular point. In 2021, Matt Cross had the support of the county’s Republican establishment in his win over Hilary Irons. In 2025, that support went to Irons and she won.

In a different time, the change of heart would have been a news story, with a reporter who had the time trying to get someone to confirm the swirl of gossip, hearsay, and private conversations that surround any contested campaign. But now all we’re left with is the swirl, and a thing known but not confirmed. The swirl was anchored in business concerns, and whether the county’s reputation was tied too closely to one person’s public persona.

Stipulating that the thing happened, a question that comes up is whether it could happen in the city. Not that the Republicans in the city could support a more moderate candidate and win a City Council seat. That ship has sailed. The question is whether what establishment there is in the city could support a council candidate who might add some gravitas to the city’s governance.

That establishment, if it exists, does not have the same base as the county’s. The county, while it has flirted with right-wing extremism, is still centered around business concerns, including but not confined to the business of farming. It’s mostly white and Christian. That’s a statistic, not a judgment. The racially and religiously diverse city has leaders in the fields of education, business, medicine, agriculture, and other areas, but there’s no defining link to those groups. A quarter-century ago it might have been the Chamber, and 40 years ago you could say without being too far wrong that the city’s decisions were made at meetings of its civic clubs.

The city voted Republican then. But ever since Democratic nominee Lowell Fulk carried the city by eight votes in a 2003 delegate race, the city has gone one way and the county another. Two years later, Fulk carried the city and lost the county by larger margins. Twelve years ago was the last time a Republican nominee carried the city in any race. Strong and effective chairs, including Alan Finks, Deb Fitzgerald (full disclosure, related by marriage), and Bill Ney, led the Democratic Party in the city during the years the party became dominant.

Since 2020, the party has been dominant enough that the candidate barely matters. One result is nominees chosen more by ideology than by policy, the difference being that ideology may shape policy, but policy runs a city. Housing decisions are borderline chaotic, administration is top-heavy, city-owned historic building are deteriorating – those are generalities more than specific issues but it’s not hard to go even more general and say the city is moving in the wrong direction. Truly contested elections might change that. It takes less than 3 percent of the city’s electorate to get the Democratic nomination. This year’s incumbents can win reelection less by defending their thin records and more by turning out the same people who nominated them before.

There is no political establishment in the city to change that. It’s a guidance we could use. Nominations and elections should not be decided in smoke-filled rooms. But somewhere like-minded people need to gather and agree that we can do better.